Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
