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PHEVs produce nearly five times greater global warming emissions than official figures show, according to a recent analysis.

Widening Discrepancy Between Lab and Real-World CO2 Output

Statistics shows that PHEVs release just one-fifth lower CO₂ than conventional petrol and diesel vehicles, based on research carried out by a non-profit organization. This contrasts significantly with laboratory estimates, which suggested a 75% reduction in emissions.

Analysts examined data from onboard energy use meters of eight hundred thousand vehicles registered in Europe from 2021 and 2023. They found that real-world CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times greater than official figures, up from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Real-world CO2 output are rising, while official figures are falling,” stated a lead analyst involved in the study. “This gap is growing and creates a significant issue. Consequently, PHEVs pollute almost as heavily as gasoline vehicles.”

Primary Factors Behind the Emissions Gap

Researchers linked most of the difference to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the ratio of miles travelled in electric mode compared to overall mileage. They determined that only a quarter of travel was completed in EV mode, while lab assumptions assumed over four-fifths.

Even, when running in EV mode, emission levels were significantly higher than lab estimates. This occurred because EV motors were insufficiently powerful enough to operate independently, leading to engines using gasoline for nearly one-third of the travel completed in electric mode.

Regulatory and Economic Consequences

According to calculations, the lowballing of PHEV emissions allowed four major automaker companies to avoid over €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by falsely easing compliance with European Union fleet-average CO₂ standards.

Furthermore, owners of PHEVs would spend about €500 extra per year in running costs than is assumed under laboratory conditions.

“The strong claims that automakers like to make about their PHEV cars are obviously far from the truth,” commented a automotive expert. “Buyers are being duped into thinking that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the planet and cutting costs. Actually, PHEVs are only slightly improved than standard gas and diesel cars in terms of energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and operating expenses.”

Policy Debate and Industry Lobbying

Hybrid cars have lately been brought again into policy discussions as carmakers have pressed the European Union to weaken CO₂ targets. A planned ban on new combustion engine cars in 2035 has faced heavy lobbying from the car industry and resistance from EU countries with significant car manufacturing.

Several senior officials have suggested plug-in hybrids as a potential “flexibility” option to include in the regulation.

One external energy policy specialist, who was unaffiliated with the study, described the analysis a “highly valuable addition” after years in which segments of the car industry claimed there was too little data to accurately assess actual CO2 output.

“The results demonstrate, without question, that the gap between official and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is much, much larger than for petrol or diesel cars,” the expert stated. “All policy changes regarding PHEVs should be made with utmost caution and in the light of that data.”