Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
